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Reality Distortion Failure

Couple of disclosures, up front, since I'm going to be writing about Apple. I head the PR account at Waggener Edstrom for Microsoft. Microsoft competes with Apple. Keep this in mind. :)

Over the years, I've spent a fair amount of time admiring the way that Apple does PR, especially around product announcements. They are good at it. They build suspense, they surprise, they tantalize, they deliver. More precisely, Steve Jobs delivers. He's one of the best presenters, best showmen, best product design people around. Microsoft tends to have a different model for product news than Apple does, especially for big products. Because Microsoft works as a platform player with so many hardware and software vendors, it turns out it's hard to really surprise, and in fact it can be counterproductive, because if you surprise partners and customers too much, they aren't very happy with you. Anyway, back to Apple. The concept of holding news, building expectations and then unveiling a massive surprise has been super effective, and no more so than last year with the iPhone. It was a tour de force from a communications standpoint. This recent Macworld? Not so much. There is good coverage, and lots of it, but watching the liveblogging I could see some trends.

1. The audience was whipped into a frenzy early, and gave some of the early pieces of news more credence than they'll get "upon further review" to quote an Apple ad.

2. The fact that the "hobby" Apple TV got a whole refresh was not noted in the first round of coverage, but sure was in the second -- the product was a conspicuous failure first time out, and lots of lipstick on the pig second time around will be needed.

3. The Air, the hero of the show, reminds me just a bit too much of the cube. Great design, gorgeous, beautiful -- market failure. Think I'm stretching? Lots of comparisons -- closed, underpowered, etc. One of the best laptops I ever had was the Powerbook Duo210 -- so if you slap a docking station into the mix with the Air, let me carry a second battery, then maybe....

Most importantly though, the event and news today made me wonder if the Apple PR model of hold and surprise was wearing thin. Steve Jobs is the only one at Apple who really breaks news. The company tends to only make news a few times a year. It is super closed -- no blogs, no ongoing communication, most stories/blogs etc. tied to news events. The image of the company is framed a ton via ads and not PR -- certainly a safe way of doing things, and super super controlled.  But the world has changed. The Feiler Faster Thesis holds that the pace of information and people's ability to retain/accept more information and process it faster than ever before is driving faster news cycles, and that we, as information consumers, are better at taking the information and digesting it. So in this world, is a twice a year news bang sufficient? The answer could be yes -- but there is little room for events like today in that world. Apple stepped to the plate today, IMHO, and hit....a single. The company won't be up to bat again for a while....if you are only up a few times a year, you better hit some home runs.

I've never been a big fan of "giving up control of the message" or "information wants to be free" or "user generated content will rule the world" or "it's all about the conversation." But I'm a huge believer in the value of ongoing communication, to the right audiences, about the topics they care most about, in a regular, sustained way. I guess in baseball terms that makes me a proponent of "small ball" instead of home run ball.

John Markoff at the NYT Bits Blog wrote about his interview with Jobs after the keynote. It's worth a read. I'd say that Jobs also read the New Yorker story about the death of reading, based on this quote:

Today he had a wide range of observations on the industry, including the Amazon Kindle book reader, which he said would go nowhere largely because Americans have stopped reading.

“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.”

You heard it here first: Apple has an ebook reader in the works. :) Think I'm joking? Go back and look at what Jobs said about phones and TV and subnotebooks just before he unleashed Apple versions on the world....

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Published Tuesday, January 15, 2008 10:12 PM by FrankShaw

Comments

 

courtney benson said:

Very good post!  I'm an apple fan and admire Jobs for all the things you mentioned.  I too feel that air is just going to be that - air or airless - can't see it taking off. I also agree that there will be an iBook coming soon! I don't agree with you on the way Apple handles announcements, my take on it is that they have been doing it well for a long time and have pretty much come up with outstanding products.  People wait for MacWorld -paln for it!  Something you did not mention was the movie offering, I  think Netflix offers a better deal vs apple From aprice stand point Netflix wins hands down.

January 19, 2008 1:54 PM
 

david said:

Last year Jobs referred to the AppleTV as a hobby product. At the time I viewed it as an idea without focus and I think Jobs was well aware of it. Note that lots of people (including me) hacked the thing to bits and Apple made no attempt to stop us or make it hard. Compare that with how they've been treating the iPhone. The AppleTV was more like a throwback to the computer hobbyist days. It was like the thing was a sandbox that Apple set up for us.

I think Apple was watching us very carefully to see what we did. I think Apple was paying close attention to what its users (and critics) said about it and used it for round 2. (Think Microsoft version 1 software without all the crashing and cursing.) So now we have version 2. It isn't perfect yet and I'll be there will be a version 3 - or perhaps rather than a version 3 there will a new device that builds on the AppleTV and takes it into a new direction. Imagine AppleTV with a pair of CableCards and DVR software.

Keep your lipstick - Vista needs it more than the AppleTV, I think.

January 19, 2008 2:03 PM
 

Tom Barta said:

A few points:

1) The only trouble with the "Air" is that it's ONLY for road warriors. It looks like a great product, and I see no real competition to it in that category-- ultralight laptops. The trouble with the Cube was simply poor price point. The Cube came back-- as the Mac Mini. I'm typing this on one of those. A nice value.

2) I don't think Jobs is being coy about the Kindle. I think the concept is really flawed. Besides, if I want a portable reading device-- why not an iPod Touch? Does everything a Kindle does, but better.

3) You are right about AppleTV. v1.0 was more "experiment" than "hobby". And I see no problem with that. Its a new business, downloadable movies. Nobody "owns" that niche. AppleYV 2 looks better than ANY other comers so far, by a lot. Let's see what happens.

January 19, 2008 8:48 PM
 

Grant James said:

Trust an employee representing Microsoft's PR company to quote something as mundane as the Feiler Faster Thesis.

Who cares? Apples biggest asset is its ability to think outside the square..in essence creating its own real time thesis on how things are or more importantly can be done.

Microsofts biggest dilema is breaking out of the biege box mentality..and they are showing great signs of doing so, and of course keeping all stake holders in the loop. Not much room for surprises. As the encumbent Microsoft doesnt have as much room to move, they have to keep the market share they have as well as claw for more. Apple on the other hand has nothing to lose, its all up from here.

In short Microsoft needs to change its marketing and PR if its to continue into the next century,even if it upsets and delay some of it stake holders.

I remember seeing an old sixties advert from the US ( I  am an Australian living in Oz ). It showed in the event of a nuclear bomb detonation to "duck and cover", depicting people hiding under a desk or kitchen table.

We all know that past methodologies may have had a relevance at the time, but how long can anyone live with them?

January 19, 2008 11:51 PM
 

bonez said:

"Keep your lipstick - Vista needs it more than the AppleTV, I think."

its a shame you apple folks arent as clever as you think you are.

did you forget that vista has sold 3x the entire mac installed base... in 1 year no less.

January 20, 2008 3:36 AM
 

Christopher Coulter said:

Well, Jobs trash-talked the Tablet endlessly, and they never did one, six years later, so that theory doesn’t always stand up.

January 20, 2008 4:12 AM
 

FrankShaw said:

interesting comments. There is no doubt that Apple does some great work, which I hope I acknowledged. And yes, they do break out of the box with some regularity -- did anyone think they needed an iPod before it was introduced? No. But my larger point was about communicatitons. Apple is fighting a pretty big trend with its focus on totally 100 percent controlled communication, and I think it will come back and bite them.

January 20, 2008 7:29 AM
 

paul said:

Steve Jobs is a Marketing guy who produces products that people want to buy and he becomes a salesman when on stage at MacWorld.

There is no PR involved, no embargoed releases sent out to the tired Trade Press as Microsoft often does along with large amounts of cash to support ads in publications that few people actually read.

January 20, 2008 7:53 AM
 

FrankShaw said:

Apple does a TON of PR, and is quite good at it --  look at the iPhone launch for example. Cover of magazines at the time it came out? Coincidence? I think not...

January 20, 2008 8:09 AM
 

paul said:

The iPhone was a partnership with AT&T, but at what point does PR become payola?  

January 20, 2008 8:39 AM
 

Joel said:

They put out better products on a consistent basis, so who cares if it's twice a year?

January 20, 2008 11:46 AM
 

Ryan said:

You're rambling and you're wrong. Apple keeps the information flowing all year because they release 'controlled' information twice. It's a hybrid model in which they due in fact leverage the community at large to keep a conversation. PR 'controllers' quoting Feiler Faster Thesis is just what we at MSFT don't need. We should be investing more in channel n's than Waggener Edstrom. Just tell the truth and stop controlling everything....

January 20, 2008 5:37 PM
 

FrankShaw said:

Ryan, I'm not sure how suing bloggers and  blackballing the media if they write negative things constitutes keeping a conversation going. MS has a hybrid model for sure....my point is I think it's a better model, or at least more in tune with the way things seem to be going!

January 20, 2008 8:07 PM
 

mattj said:

Not sure what you're getting at ere (and have read the article three times).

Are you saying Apple has bad PR or bad products? At one point you're slagging the Apple TV or the Air and then you're off on a  tangent about how Apple only has two PR events a year? When? What? Are you referring to MacWorld and WWDC? You miss the other Apple Events?

I don't know what the message is here. Apple flubbed the Apple Tv but at least they admitted it (hobby) and have tried again to make things better by adding rentals to Apple TV. There are other companies in this space which have yet to admit their poor entry into markets.

January 21, 2008 6:36 AM
 

Jim McQuaid said:

Steve Jobs isn't the only news.  While you may think that the new Mac Pros aren't big news, they were announced a week or two before MacWorld and they are big news to the video & high end graphics folks who are a pretty important customer for Apple.  So, Apple may be making twice a year "big" announcements, there are plenty of other things being released / announced in between.

January 21, 2008 9:56 AM
 

Peter Aisher said:

Is this 'Glass House' as in "People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones" ?

Apple's PR speaks to people because when they communicate, they have something worth communicating.

It's all very well trickling information out all year round, but 2 annual 'Impact' events have more . . . impact!

January 21, 2008 1:01 PM
 

B.Ackles said:

What are they going to call this eBook? "iBook"...lol!

January 21, 2008 10:53 PM
 

Anthony said:

"did you forget that vista has sold 3x the entire mac installed base... in 1 year no less."

Primary difference is that most of the people who bought Macs wanted them.  Most of the people who bought Vista didn't.

January 22, 2008 11:43 AM
 

bonez said:

Anthony, i love how you reply to my FACT with nothing but OPINION. Is this your approach to all things in your life, or only things that involve topics which you obviously have little or no understanding? Hmm...

January 23, 2008 2:58 AM
 

Julian T said:

I think Tom Barta may just be correct. In fact the way I see it Apple has not one but two ebook readers. They are called the iPod Touch and the iPhone.......

January 23, 2008 4:42 AM
 

shel israel said:

Frank,

I think you, and perhaps Microsoft, would be wise not to underestimate the Air. It is a road warriors tool and road warriors will bring it into the enterprise, the last, but very significant bastion of MS dominance. The price is fiune for a road warrior and just looking at it will stir conversations in the workplace. The price will muigrate south, as it always des, and there will be an Air, 2, 3 & 4, exh with added functionality and each--becoming a subsequent road warriors "must have" tool. In the old days, Microsoft never got smug with competitors. Recent history should teach you that it would be foolish to underestimate them now. BTW, I hear rumors that your MacOffice Group is doing quite well. How is it's growth compared with other segments of the Office franchise? Does MacOffice play in more enterprise sales conversation today than it did a year ago?

I think complacency about the Apple Computer line would be an enormous mistake.  We shall see.

January 26, 2008 6:22 PM
 

FrankShaw said:

Shel, I'm not really weighing in on the relative merits of the Air -- other pundits have done so already, and they seem to be saying -- not for road grunts at this time.

My point was more about the communications strategy and less about the technical strategy....

January 26, 2008 8:00 PM
 

Gianni said:

Ok, it's coming from a competitor, so take it graciously. I would NOT have negatively commented on a product from one of my client's competitors, although your disclaimer is quite clear.

Not that I disagree with you, it's simply that I don't think this will come across as unbiased criticism.

Just my EUR0.02

February 4, 2008 10:20 AM
 

Dude said:

@Bonez:

You maybe quoting facts (I didn't check, but I'll give you that for argument's sake), but they're also irrelevant: OF COURSE Windows will have more sales, it's what happens in a monopoly, when one product owns 90%+ of the market... DUH. The 3x or whatever numbers still don't make up for the fact that it's crap.

And now to make the facts comparable, since the installed Mac user base is like 3-7%, while the Windows user base is close to 90%, it should not have sold only 3x, but many more X, otherwise the rate is sub-par (Which it is. Revel in its sub-par-ness since you seam to love it so much.)

February 15, 2008 1:15 AM

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